新型コロナ肺炎の死亡率とBCGワクチン接種政策の関連/OECD加盟国(COVID19 Mortality Rates (LOG) and BCG Vaccination Policies / OECD countries)



COVID19 Mortality Rates (LOG) and BCG Vaccination Policies / OECD countries









An academic paper mentioning Correlation between mortality for COVID19 pneumonia and the BCG vaccination policy was published.




「国のBCGワクチン接種方針とCOVID-19の罹患率および死亡率の低下との相関:疫学研究」Correlation between universal BCG vaccination policy and reduced morbidity and mortality for COVID-19: an epidemiological study





The data presented in this paper are as of March 20. Already, Italy has doubled the number of deaths and infections.




 So we used the latest data  March 31 and animated the graphs further.

We're looking forward to your opinion.





日本語版(Japanese version)

English version


■WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports










BCG is a vaccine against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (bacterial) infection, so I thought it was basically ineffective for the virus as well as the coronavirus.

However, because of the great correlation between vaccination policies and mortality, I think, "Is there any reason?"








「BCGワクチン接種などのワクチンは、非特異的免疫効果を生み出し、他の病原体に対する反応を改善することが示されている。たとえば、BCGワクチン接種マウスではCD4 +細胞からのIFN-Y産生の増加によって免疫が強化されているという報告もある。この現象は「trained immunity」と呼ばれ、炎症促進性サイトカイン、具体的には抗ウイルス免疫で重要な役割を果たすことが示されている。ギニアでの研究では、BCGでワクチンを接種した子供は、全体的な死亡率が50%減少することが観察されている。」

The above paper "Correlation between universal BCG vaccination policy and reduced morbidity and mortality for COVID-19: an epidemiological study" described that "Several vaccines including the BCG vaccination have been shown to produce  non-specific immune effects leading to improved response against other non- mycobacterial pathogens. For instance, BCG vaccinated mice infected with the vaccinia virus were protected by increased IFN-Y production from CD4+ cells . This phenomenon was named‘trained immunity’ and is proposed to be caused by metabolic and epigenetic changes leading to promotion of genetic regions encoding for pro-inflammatory cytokines . BCG vaccination significantly increases the secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines, specifically IL-1B, which has been shown to play a vital role in antiviral immunity . Additionally, a study in Guinea-Bissau found that children vaccinated with BCG were observed to have a 50% reduction in overall mortality, which was attributed to the vaccine’s effect on reducing respiratory infections and sepsis. "






 In addition, the mortality rate in this chart is expressed by logarithmic. Because it is logarithmic, one additional tick increases mortality ten times. Two ticks increase mortality by 100 timesThis is because countries such as Italy are extremely prominent in terms of actual mortality rates (the number of deaths per million inhabitants), while countries with low mortality rates such as India are almost inconspicuous. The actual death rate is shown below.








 In addition, many countries with low mortality rates are not G7 countries, and aren't they just reluctant to test for financial reasons? I guess it seems natural.




The two answers I think are:



It may be acceptable not to perform the test in mild cases, but isn't it difficult to do so in cases that lead to death?


 Although the difference in the mortality rate seems to be small in the logarithmic graph, the actual mortality rate differs greatly in each country. Isn't it difficult to explain this big difference by the number of tests?





 However, "correlation" does not prove "causal relationship", and I do not want to say "Japan is safe".

But, it is very important to capture facts accurately as facts, and it is also important to learn something from them.




 It is quite possible that this correlation will fade away in the future. I want to continue making graphs as I keep track of it.




We're looking forward to your opinion.